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Consumer Sentiments βeta A collaborative effort of BSE, CMIE & University of Michigan
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Description

Our objective is to measure perceptions and expectations accurately so that the business community can understand the mood of the consumer and anticipate changes in the same. This is expected to help businesses directly in decision making.

Consumer sentiment in India are measured on the lines of the work done in this regard by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. This effort, called the Survey of Consumers, began in 1946 and has produced several measures that are well established lead indicators in the US. The Index of Consumer Expectations, produced by the Survey of Consumers, is included in the Leading Indicator Composite Index published by the US Department of Commerce.

Like the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan in the US, Indian respondents were asked five questions, with the information being used to generate three indices. The five questions posed to respondents are:

  1. Compared to a year ago, how is your family faring financially these days - Better, Same, Worse

  2. Do you think that a year from now your family would be faring financially - Better, Same, Worse

  3. How would you describe the next 12 months. financial and business conditions in our country - Good times, Uncertain times, Bad times

  4. What do you think would the next 5 years. financial and business conditions in our country be - Continuously good times, Uncertain with ups and down, Continuously bad times

  5. Do you think that this is generally a good or bad time to buy things like furniture, refrigerator, television, two-wheeler, car - Good time, Same as other times, Bad time.

These questions are addressed to, and answers are sought from, the most articulate adult member of the household.

The sample of households is CMIE’s panel of households comprising over 161,183 households. This is the largest sample of individuals from which data is gathered on consumer sentiments in India.

We generate the following three indices from the above:

  1. Index of Consumer Sentiment
  2. Index of Consumer Expectations
  3. Index of Current Economic Conditions

On an average 1400 households are surveyed everyday. About 250 interviewers conduct a face-to-face interviews with the respondents. These interviews are well spread out over the entire country across both rural and urban regions. Data is collected through a mobile phone application and validated in real-time.

This capture of consumer sentiments on a daily basis from a large and random sample of households with the help of technology enables us to estimate trailing 30-day measures of consumer sentiments. It also allows us to generate a set of monthly measures of consumer sentiments.